I just can't resist it and leave it alone. Like most people who follow college football to any extent - I can't stand the current system that determines who gets to play for a national championship. But as I've thought of this and why most (if not everybody) is against the system and why nothing will be done about it.
It comes down to what people feel is fair. When too few individuals (or groups) hold too much of the power, people get antsy. It's the feeling of having some level of control over your own destiny. To me, it's the same reason why some people can't stand to fly but are content to drive (or be driven) - even though statistics clearly show that flying (commercially) is far safer than driving. But it's the idea that we have at shot of changing the outcome of an accident directly where when a plane crashes you're along for the ride. We want to feel that there is something "out there" that instills trust that fairness and equality are being championed on behalf of the minority.
There are currently eleven (11) conferences that play at the 1-A level. Six (6) of them are considered "BCS" conferences which are basically an elite tier whose conference champions get to play in big money, nationally televised bowl games around this time of year (you may of heard of some of them...).
The remaining five conferences aren't affiliated with the big money - high profile bowls and since they are deemed weaker by that context - the will have no chance to play for the national championship which only takes the top two BCS computer ranked teams who play in a separate big money bowl. The current payouts for the top four BCS bowls and the National Championship Bowl are $17 million. In 2009, the Big 12 Conference champion Oklahoma will play the SEC Conference champion Florida in the National Championship. But, both conferences also get to play in the other top ranked BCS bowls (SEC - Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12 - Texas in the Fiesta Bowl). Meaning that both conferences get a share of another $17 million.
Out of 120 teams at the 1-A level, there are 34 bowl games (including the National Championship). That means 68 teams are playing in a bowl which is slightly over half of the teams. What also bugs me (and most others) is that a team is "bowl eligible" with six wins. Well, in a 12 game season - that's a 0.500 record and if that team loses their bowl game, they actually end the season with a losing record. This bowl season, there are nine (9) teams with a 6-6 record playing and another 16 teams playing with a 7-5 record.
Since this bar is so low - most conferences are fielding several teams in bowls. Here's a breakdown:
BCS Conferences
Big 12 - 7 of 12 teams
Big 10 - 7 of 11 teams
SEC - 8 of 12 teams
Pac 10 - 5 of 10 teams
ACC - 10 of 12 teams
Big East - 6 of 8 teams
Non-BCS Conferences
Mt. West - 5 of 9 teams
C-USA - 6 of 12 teams
WAC - 5 of 9 teams
Sun Belt - 2 of 8 teams
MAC - 5 of 13 teams
Independents Notre Dame and Navy are also playing in bowls.
Now for the money - I added up all of the payouts for the 34 bowl games and the total pot is $129,753,000. Games range anywhere from $300k to $17M for payouts. The BCS conferences will collectively receive around $111M this year or 86% of the payouts. The non-BCS conferences and Independents will receive the balance. Since Utah was able to qualify for a BCS game this year, it throws it off - in a "normal" year where only BCS schools are receive BCS bowl game money, the figure would be around $120M which constitutes 92.5% of the total bowl money.
That figure gets split up amongst the winning team representing the conference with a portion going back to the other teams in the conference. Here is the breakdown of winnings that will go to each conference:
BCS Teams:
Big 12 - $22,540,000
Big 10 - $23,475,000
SEC - $26,600,000
Pac 10 - $11,440,000
ACC - $16,450,000
Big East - $10,975,000
Non BCS Teams:
Mt. West - $10,050,000 (Utah's $8.5M for it's Sugar Bowl Appearance)
C-USA - $2,812,500
WAC - $1,874,000
Sun Belt - $537,500
MAC - $2,300,000
Independents (they don't share with anyone else):
Notre Dame - $199,000
Navy - $500,000
It reeks of unfairness. The lower caste teams can't reach the top to make the big money even though they are ranked on the same scale as the upper crust conferences and since they can't get the big money (often enough), the funds aren't there to build the conferences up so that they can be competitive. It's amazing when you really think about the level of money that non-BCS teams play so well to be ranked in the top 25 let alone breaking the top ten (both Utah and Boise State did this year). The system is designed to keep the little guy out but does allow for a little table scraps to be thrown out on occasion.
So, what if I were king and could rearrange things so that all teams had an equal shot at the national championship along with instituting a bonafide play-off system? Here's what it may look like:
I would attempt to keep most of the conferences stable for traditions sake but there are some major changes that would need to be enacted. I would propose that we cut the conferences down from eleven (11) to nine (9). I would dissolve the WAC, C-USA and the Sun Belt to do this and take those teams and redistribute. I would create one entirely new conference as well. Each conference would have at least 12 teams split into two divisions that would allow for a conference championship. (I have included a graphic of what each conference would look like - CLICK ON THE PICTURE TO ENLARGE).
SOUTHERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE - this is a new conference consisting of ex Sun Belt and C-USA teams.
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE - this has the same name and only four of the original teams but has taken on most of the newly dissolved WAC.
BIG EAST CONFERENCE - this is expanded from eight (8) teams to 12. Teams from C-USA, Sun Belt and MAC would fill out this roster.
BIG NORTH CONFERENCE - this is formally the BIG 10. I added Iowa State from the BIG 12 to balance out the new "west" region.
PACIFIC COAST CONFERENCE - this is formally the PAC 10. I added Utah and BYU to make twelve and split the conference into north and south regions.
SEC - there are no proposed changes
BIG 12 - With Iowa State going to the BIG NORTH, Colorado State was added to the BIG 12 north division. TCU was also added as a 13th team in the south division.
ACC - there are no proposed changes
MAC - Removed one team - Temple would now be part of the Big East.
INDEPENDENTS - Western Kentucky would now be part of the new SOUTHERN Conference. Air Force would join the other service academies as independents along with Hawai'i.
The nine (9) conferences would produce one conference champion that would be entered into the national playoff system consisting of the top 16 teams. The other seven (7) teams would come from the conferences and/or independents who are in the top ranks as determined by the BCS computer program. For instance, if the Big 12 produced three top 10 teams with one being the champion with an automatic slot, then then the other two could find their way into the playoffs as seeded at-large teams.
The first round of playoffs would be held at the higher seeded team's home field with a much higher payoff ($5-8 M from endorsements). Quarter and Semi finals would be held at neutral sites where I proposed the four BCS bowls along with adding the Cotton and the Liberty Bowl. These payoffs would be larger - $10-12 M for the quarter finals and $12-15 M for the semis. The national championship would be the same with a final payout around $15-20 M.
A team making to the national championship would earn tens of millions for their school and conference along with allowing all conferences the ability to legitimately compete for a national title.
The existing bowl exhibition games could still be used for those teams who didn't make the playoffs and those funds could be distributed accordingly. I would guess that in a couple of years those bowls wouldn't be all that interesting and would fade.
Now, there are a lot of obvious problems with this fantasy - first, the people in power aren't willingly going to relinquish it so a "self-governed" system isn't going to spring up from the grassroots. Secondly there are a lot of traditions that would have to be reshaped to accommodate this. Third, the system would allow for unequal funding to go to dynasty conferences and the money would have to be figured into this. Conferences that only field their champion and they lost in the first round would get very little compared to the previous system, but those that did make it to the quarters, semis and finals would rake in 3-4 times what they do now.
And maybe with all "grass is greener" fantasy scenarios that the truth of it is that in the quest of fair play and equality, those factors could (and do) spur their own set of problems and controversy and those sports who have leveled the playing field (such as Indy Car), public interest quickly fades. The populace wants and craves a controversy and the heralded Cinderella story where the little guy gets his day. So with that in mind - maybe we should just suck it up? You let me know.
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